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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jul 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

12 Jan 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Human-Level Language Models

36
16 comments16

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
4 comments4
AI Progress Essay Contest

Phase transitions and AGI

15
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

AI safety and timelines

8
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

The Patchwork Future: An Exercise in Interpolation

5
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Hyperbolic takeoff

7
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will AI-enabled automation constitute more than half of the World's GDP by the end of the Century?

6
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest