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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

11
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
12 comments
55 forecasters

Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025?

resultYes
0 comments
4 forecasters

When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?

Current estimate
Nov 2035
42 comments
139 forecasters

Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?

Together for the Republic76.2%
Other10.2%
No Prime Minister3.5%
0 comments
4 forecasters

Will U.S. authorities transfer any current or former U.S. citizen to a prison abroad in the following years?

4 comments
6 forecasters

Will the White House direct federal agencies to target three or more high-profile presidential critics in the following years?

1 comment
7 forecasters

Will the U.S. federal government open formal investigations of at least 5 top-50 universities in the following years?

1 comment
7 forecasters

Will two or more U.S. state or federal judges or legislators be victims of murder or attempted murder by non-state actors in the following years?

0 comments
37 forecasters

Will Nepal swear in a new prime minister before September 20, 2025?

Revealed in 3 days
1 comment
6 forecasters

Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in the following years?