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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

13
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0 comments
99 forecasters

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?

37.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
98 forecasters

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

93.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
97 forecasters

Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?

88%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
96 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Liberal)

1%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment
95 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Patient Focus)

1%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
97 forecasters

Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (ARES)

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
93 forecasters

Which Chamber of the US Congress will vote on a bill in furtherance of an acquisition of Greenland, before 2026?

Neither69.5%
House of Representatives21.1%
Both5%

This question is closed for forecasting.

92 comments
89 forecasters

How many seats in the Canadian House of Commons will these parties win in the 2025 federal election? (Green)

Latest estimate
1.03 seats

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
90 forecasters

What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-25)

Latest estimate
4.43%

This question is closed for forecasting.