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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance

The Patchwork Future: An Exercise in Interpolation

5
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind50%
Microsoft25%
Meta14%
and 14 others

AI Safety ∩ AI/DL Research

10
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?

resultNo

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

0 or 148.9%
2 or 337.4%
4 or 511.4%
and 3 others

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85%chance

Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight when it is next updated?

resultNo