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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jul 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Are We Surprised by AI Milestones?

8
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH20%
Amazon Web Services8%
Microsoft Azure7%
and 1 other

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH20%
Amazon Web Services15%
Microsoft Azure15%
and 1 other

AI Safety ∩ AI/DL Research

10
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

17.8%chance

Are we in a simulated reality? Part II

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

15%chance

When will programs write programs for us?

result07 Jul 2021

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

02 Mar 2028