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When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

00

Spacecraft Launchers and the Launcher Market

12
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?

0.2%chance

Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?

resultYes

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?

Key Factor

SpaceX has a history of ambitious timelines, such as Elon Musk's claim that uncrewed Starship rockets could be sent to Mars by 2026, with a crewed expedition in 2028, which suggests potential for delays given the complexity of such missions.

22%chance

Key Factor

SpaceX has a history of ambitious timelines, such as Elon Musk's claim that uncrewed Starship rockets could be sent to Mars by 2026, with a crewed expedition in 2028, which suggests potential for delays given the complexity of such missions.

Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?

resultYes

When will the 1,000th person reach space?

Mar 2034

Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?

resultYes

Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?

resultNo

How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on January 1, 2028?

11.1k
satellites