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US Democracy Index

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Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

Anish Giri99.9%

Hikaru Nakamura99.8%

3 comments

7 forecasters

Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds compete in the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?

99%chance

49% this week

5 comments

11 forecasters

If Viktor Orbán leads a party in the 2026 Hungarian Election, will he become Prime Minister?

53%chance

50% this week

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

20.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?

78.3%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

18 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

11 comments

78 forecasters

Who will win the FIDE Chess World Cup 2025?

Someone else73.3%

Arjun Erigaisi20%

Wei Yi6%

1 comment

19 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds compete in the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?

If Viktor Orbán leads a party in the 2026 Hungarian Election, will he become Prime Minister?

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

Who will win the FIDE Chess World Cup 2025?

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds compete in the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?

If Viktor Orbán leads a party in the 2026 Hungarian Election, will he become Prime Minister?

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

Who will win the FIDE Chess World Cup 2025?

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?