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Phase transitions and AGI

15
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

Discussion page for the Fermi Paradox question series

13
2 comments2
Fermi Paradox Series

Forecasting Asset Prices

11
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will a version of Claude be the top model on chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on May 16, 2024?

resultNo

Will a prediction market outperform Nate Silver's forecasts for the Super Tuesday primaries?

resultYes

A medical pathway to complete painlessness?

resultNo

A triumph over the mite-y?

resultNo

Zapping Zika #5: Clinical trials of IFITM3-based therapies?

resultNo

Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?

resultYes

Will Metaculus's predictions significantly improve in the next 6 months?

resultNo