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Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

25%chance

Leverage AI-centric to AGI and ASI-centric beyond Moore's Law

no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

The Unsolvable Control Problem, Artificial Sentience, and InfoSec

no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?

resultNo

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50.8%chance

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

20.8
months

Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?

95%chance

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

28.7
months

Will transformative AI come with a bang?

13
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

Forecasting Extraordinary Events

12
1 comment1
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