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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Singapore75%
Vietnam70%
Taiwan67%
and 9 others

Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?

resultNo

Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?

resultNo

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

15%chance

Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?

resultNo

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran67%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
and 7 others

Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?

Yes, still owned by foreign adversary49%
Yes, non-adversary owner41.8%
No9.2%

Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?

resultNo

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

60%chance