• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
💎
Metaculus Cup
🇮🇷🇮🇱
Iran-Israel Conflict
⚡
Current events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🏦
Big Beautiful Bill
🗽
State of the Union
⏳
AI 2027
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

60%chance

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

50%chance

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

60%chance

Reducing Nuclear Risk Through Improved US-China Relations

13
2 comments2
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

66%chance

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

55%chance

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%chance

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

21.6%chance
condition

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

17 forecasters
if yes
if no

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

60%
60%

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

65%
65%
4
no comments0
The Taiwan Tinderbox

How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?

955%
1040.5%
1115%
and 4 others