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Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

32%chance

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%
≤3 nm90%
≤2 nm49.4%

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH20%
Amazon Web Services15%
Microsoft Azure15%
and 1 other

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%
Google5%
Nvidia3%

How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024?

How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

20352%
20301%

How much will China spend on importing diodes and semiconductors in 2022?

result29.2507M

Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?