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US Democracy Index

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Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

Anish Giri99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

5 comments

13 forecasters

If Viktor Orbán leads a party in the 2026 Hungarian Election, will he become Prime Minister?

50%chance

47% this week

12 comments

82 forecasters

Who will win the FIDE Chess World Cup 2025?

Someone else73.8%

Arjun Erigaisi20.1%

Wei Yi5.4%

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

20.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

20 forecasters

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

18 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?

78.3%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

15 comments

35 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

1855 deaths