• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
💎
Metaculus Cup
🇮🇷🇮🇱
Iran-Israel Conflict
⚡
Current events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🏦
Big Beautiful Bill
🗽
State of the Union
⏳
AI 2027
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Singapore75%
Vietnam70%
Taiwan67%
and 9 others

Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?

resultNo

Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?

resultNo

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

34%chance

Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?

Spainresult: Yes
Englandresult: No
United Statesresult: No
and 29 others

Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?

45%chance

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Birth Rates in the Modern World

4
16 comments16
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

4%chance

Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?

resultYes

Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?

48%chance