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1
comment
14
forecasters
How many chlorination grants will GiveWell recommend after September 20, 2024, and before January 1, 2026?
6 or more
28.7%
4
27.4%
5
27.4%
4 others
16%
2
comments
12
forecasters
Will President Donald J. Trump take legal action against the BBC before 2026?
Trump files a lawsuit in the USA only
52.7%
Trump does not file a lawsuit in the USA or the UK
26%
Trump files a lawsuit in both the USA and the UK
13.8%
1 other
7%
2
comments
7
forecasters
What will be the result of the vote chess game, IM Levy Rozman Vs. The World?
Rozman victory
75%
Draw
23%
Rozman loss
2%
10
comments
68
forecasters
What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 48E (ITC) clean electricity tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?
No sunset reduction before 2026
72.5%
2025-2026 sunset w/ safe harbor
13.1%
2027-2028 sunset w/ safe harbor
7.8%
4 others
7%
7
comments
59
forecasters
Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025?
Magnus Carlsen
49.5%
Fabiano Caruana
13%
Vincent Keymer
9%
5 others
28%
Key Factors
Carlsen has highest Elo
18
comments
80
forecasters
Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?
Abu Dhabi
66.5%
Qatar
33.3%
São Paulo
0.1%
1 other
0%
Key Factors
Norris and Piastri rarely miss the top rankings, slows the final result
Verstappen is taking a lot of points away from both drivers
33 points available in Qatar race
6
comments
58
forecasters
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?
Gary Marcus win
85%
Nathan Young win
13%
Other
2%
Key Factors
The scalability of technology is going to be the biggest key factor which will decide the winner
1
comment
18
forecasters
Which party's nominee will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Democratic Party
52.5%
Republican Party
47.4%
Other
0.1%
18
comments
106
forecasters
How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?
No 2025 ruling
60%
Mixed ruling
20%
Tariffs unlawful
10.9%
2 others
9%
Key Factors
Skepticism of justices in first hearing
18
comments
454
forecasters
Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
Democrats
71.4%
Republicans
28.5%
Other
0.1%
Key Factors
California Prop 50 adds 3-5 seats for Democrats
Spreading of Deepfakes
Corn Gene Modification
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