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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

38%chance
15% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

0.2%chance

Will any state leave NATO before 2024?

resultNo

Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?

resultYes

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran66%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
and 7 others

When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?

Nov 2041

Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?

resultNo

How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?

result2

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

15%chance

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

80%chance