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Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%chance

Five years after AGI, what will be humanity’s energy consumption?

455k TWh

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

50%chance

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

23%chance

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

0.556%

Forecast on critical questions on Taiwan 🇹🇼

11
1 comment1
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?

18 forecasters
if yes
if no

US-China war before 2035?

4%
4%

US-China war before 2035?

5%
5%
3
1 comment1
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?

9 forecasters
if yes
if no

US-China war before 2035?

23%
23%

US-China war before 2035?

23%
23%
1
no comments0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition

US SLCM 2030

Resolved:Yes
2 forecasters
if yes
if no

US-China war before 2035?

10%
10%

US-China war before 2035?

4%
4%
Resolved:Annulled
1
no comments0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition

U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?

12 forecasters
if yes
if no

US-China war before 2035?

36%
36%

US-China war before 2035?

10%
10%
2
no comments0
The Taiwan Tinderbox