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Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
2%
58 forecasters
5
no comments
0
Five years after AGI, what will be humanity’s energy consumption?
319k
14 forecasters
6
no comments
0
Five Years After AGI
Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?
35%
26 forecasters
6
9 comments
9
Five Years After AGI
By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?
17%
31 forecasters
6
2 comments
2
Five Years After AGI
On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?
0.357
3 forecasters
1
4 comments
4
Forecast on critical questions on Taiwan 🇹🇼
12
1 comment
1
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?
10 forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China war before 2035?
5%
5%
US-China war before 2035?
5%
5%
3
1 comment
1
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?
6 forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China war before 2035?
6%
6%
US-China war before 2035?
6%
6%
1
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
US SLCM 2030
Resolved :
Yes
6 forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China war before 2035?
10%
10%
US-China war before 2035?
4%
4%
Resolved :
Annulled
1
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?
7 forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China war before 2035?
11%
11%
US-China war before 2035?
7%
7%
2
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
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