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When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

Jul 2047

Polygenic Selection of Embryos

21
7 comments7
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

40%chance

When will the first human baby be born, whose embryo was polygenically selected from a cohort of at least 50 simultaneously obtained ova?

Oct 2034

Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

17%chance

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

56%chance

Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

71%chance

Contributed by the Foresight Institute community.

Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?

Embryo gene editing45.9%
In vitro gametogenesis (IVG)32.3%
Neither/Other21.8%

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

04 Aug 2029

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

80%chance