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Polygenic Selection of Embryos

21
6 comments6
Metaculus Journal Archives

When will the first human baby be born, whose embryo was polygenically selected from a cohort of at least 50 simultaneously obtained ova?

Oct 2034

When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

Sep 2047

Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

40%chance

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%chance

Contributed by the Foresight Institute community.

Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?

Embryo gene editing45.9%
In vitro gametogenesis (IVG)32.3%
Neither/Other21.8%

By 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?

60%chance

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

56%chance

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

80%chance

Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

17%chance