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SIPRI estimates China's arsenal grows by 100 warheads/year

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

30%chance

5% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

7.53

weapons

If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?

32%chance

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

50%chance

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%chance

Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

85%chance

Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

Annulled

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?

Key Factor

Key Factor

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

Key Factor

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?

Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?

Key Factor

Key Factor

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

Key Factor

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?

Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?