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[Short fuse] Will the Government lose its majority in the 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election?

79%chance
32.5% today

[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
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Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies?

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What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies?

TSLA0.398

How many U.S. metro areas with more than 500k people will have non-routine military or federalized National Guard deployments before Nov 3, 2026?

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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Instrumental Reasoning risk levels?

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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

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