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US Democracy Index

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1 1 comment

5 comments

13 forecasters

If Viktor Orbán leads a party in the 2026 Hungarian Election, will he become Prime Minister?

50%chance

47% this week

12 comments

82 forecasters

Who will win the FIDE Chess World Cup 2025?

Someone else73.8%

Arjun Erigaisi20.1%

Wei Yi5.4%

4 comments

1 forecaster

How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

20.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

8 forecasters

Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

15 comments

36 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

1875 deaths

6 comments

6 forecasters

Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened question)

resultYes

1 comment

How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days