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US Democracy Index

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Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

2%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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100 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?

5%chance

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100 forecasters

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

20.5%chance

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100 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

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95 forecasters

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

Latest estimate

40.7M birds

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81 forecasters

What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?

Latest estimate

231T digits

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98 forecasters

What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)

Latest estimate

1.2 $

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14 forecasters

Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?

0 comments

106 forecasters

Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?

15%chance

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102 forecasters

What will be the highest price of Bitcoin in 2025?

Latest estimate

142k $

This question is closed for forecasting.