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US Democracy Index

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1 1 comment

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100 forecasters

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

20.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

101 forecasters

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

2%chance

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0 comments

100 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?

78.3%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

17 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

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81 forecasters

What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?

Latest estimate

231T digits

This question is closed for forecasting.

15 comments

29 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

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100 forecasters

Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026?

9.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.