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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

11
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0 comments
4 forecasters

When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?

Current estimate
Nov 2035
42 comments
139 forecasters

Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?

Together for the Republic75.8%
Other10.1%
No Prime Minister3.9%
0 comments
5 forecasters

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

1 comment
7 forecasters

Will the U.S. federal government open formal investigations of at least 5 top-50 universities in the following years?

1 comment
7 forecasters

Will two or more U.S. state or federal judges or legislators be victims of murder or attempted murder by non-state actors in the following years?

4 comments
95 forecasters

Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (HOOD)

99%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
5 forecasters

How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years?

2025Upcoming
2026Upcoming
2027Upcoming
0 comments
13 forecasters

#1 - Will construction start in 2025 on Phase II of the project to move neighborhood power lines underground?

95%chance
48% this week
1 comment
95 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Patient Focus)

1%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.