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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
11
0
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0
comments
4
forecasters
When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?
Current estimate
Nov 2035
42
comments
139
forecasters
Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?
Together for the Republic
75.8%
Other
10.1%
No Prime Minister
3.9%
6 others
10%
0
comments
5
forecasters
Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?
1
comment
7
forecasters
Will the U.S. federal government open formal investigations of at least 5 top-50 universities in the following years?
1
comment
7
forecasters
Will two or more U.S. state or federal judges or legislators be victims of murder or attempted murder by non-state actors in the following years?
4
comments
95
forecasters
Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (HOOD)
99%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
5
forecasters
How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years?
2025
Upcoming
2026
Upcoming
2027
Upcoming
1 other
0
comments
13
forecasters
#1 - Will construction start in 2025 on Phase II of the project to move neighborhood power lines underground?
95%
chance
48%
this week
1
comment
95
forecasters
Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Patient Focus)
1%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
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