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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
14
0
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
Report: Pro Forecasters Expect Steady NIH and NSF Funding
5
3
3
comments
Research Agencies Outlook
0
comments
99
forecasters
Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?
37.5%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
98
forecasters
Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?
93.5%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
90
forecasters
What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-25)
Latest estimate
4.43%
This question is closed for forecasting.
Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup
4
15
15
comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
0
comments
96
forecasters
Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?
72.5%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
89
forecasters
What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-25)
Latest estimate
50.1k jobs
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
52
forecasters
What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Aug-25)
Latest estimate
325
This question is closed for forecasting.
24
comments
252
forecasters
Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?
60%
chance
51%
this week
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