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US Democracy Index

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Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

0.1%chance

6 comments

19 forecasters

How many of the 10 most important advancements in machine learning or artificial intelligence of 2025-2030 will have been discovered by an AI system?

Latest estimate

3.84

This question is closed for forecasting.

69 comments

296 forecasters

Will there be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?

99%chance

19 comments

20 forecasters

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

Current estimate

Aug 2035

Key Factors

1 comment

23 forecasters

When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?

Current estimate

06 Feb 2028

19 comments

69 forecasters

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

1 comment

27 forecasters

Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?

59%chance

23 comments

413 forecasters

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%chance

6 comments

61 forecasters

When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?

Current estimate

Feb 2031

16 comments

109 forecasters

If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?

Europa36%

Mars35%

Enceladus10%