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Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

95

95 forecasters

Which quantum pure-play stock will post the highest weekly gain from Aug 28 to Sep 4, 2026: IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, or Quantum Computing Inc.?

145 145 comments

145

145 forecasters

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

11

53

53 forecasters

Will a draft FIPS standard incorporating the HQC post-quantum algorithm appear on NIST's publications listing as of August 20, 2026?

result: no

151

151 forecasters

ResolvedNo

As of August 20, 2026, will the IBM Quantum blog's most recent post be dated on or after August 14, 2026?

result: yes

150

150 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

97% chance

257

193 193 comments

3k

3k forecasters

97%chance

When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?

<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)

3

30

30 forecasters

<01 Jan 2030

(<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30% chance

38

472

472 forecasters

30%chance

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

3

Can you forecast the future of science?

6

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

7

Will a fault-tolerant quantum computer be available to commercial users before January 1, 2030?

60% chance

9

9 forecasters

60%chance

Will the majority of global computing power be based on non-silicon hardware before the end of the 21st century?

60% chance

1

7

7 forecasters

60%chance

Five years after AGI, will quantum gravity be solved?

8% chance

7

52

52 forecasters

8%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

62

62 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

58

58 forecasters

When will a logical qubit with per–QEC‑cycle error rate < 10⁻⁶ be demonstrated?

Mar 2036 (24 Aug 2029 - Dec 2043)

1

3

3 forecasters

Mar 2036

(24 Aug 2029 - Dec 2043)

When will a logical-level CNOT be demonstrated with error < 10⁻⁶ per gate?

Mar 2035 (31 May 2031 - Feb 2039)

1

3

3 forecasters

Mar 2035

(31 May 2031 - Feb 2039)

Which quantum hardware substrate will first factor a 2048-bit RSA modulus?

1

3

3 forecasters

How many months will pass between the factoring of the 1024-bit and 2048-bit RSA challenge numbers?

35.5 Months (12.6 - 45.4)

1

3

3 forecasters

35.5 Months

(12.6 - 45.4)

Conditional on a Room-Temperature Superconductor Being Discovered Before 2100, Will Quantum Computing Be a Major Enabling Factor?

20% chance

4

4 forecasters

20%chance

When will a quantum-computing system with 1000 highly accurate logical qubits be demonstrated?

Mar 2036 (31 Jul 2030 - Aug 2047)

5

5 forecasters

Mar 2036

(31 Jul 2030 - Aug 2047)