Contributed by the JetBrains community.
0 comments
3 forecasters
For these benchmarks, what percentage of problems do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?
AI2 Reasoning Challenge97.9
Toloka's µ-MATH94.1
Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A90.8
14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
25 comments
129 forecasters
When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?
Current estimate
Oct 2033
0 comments
29 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH16%
Microsoft Azure14%
Google Cloud12%
5 comments
19 forecasters
When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?
Current estimate
Sep 2035
2 comments
38 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH27%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
Contributed by the JetBrains community.
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5 forecasters
Will any coding tool publicly introduce integration with brain-computer interface (BCI) technology by December 15, 2025?
1%chance
5% this week