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0 comments
31 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%
2 comments
39 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%

Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

5
66 comments

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
44 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
2 comments
35 forecasters

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%
Nvidia5%
Google5%

AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models

0 comments
AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models
2 comments
120 forecasters

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

0 or 151.2%
2 or 334.6%
4 or 510.8%
10 comments
38 forecasters

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%
≤3 nm90%
≤2 nm47%
1 comment
17 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%
Naura35%
AMEC30%