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What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?

3

7

7 forecasters

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

97% chance

257

198 198 comments

3k

3k forecasters

97%chance

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

11

57

57 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

7

27

27 forecasters

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

5

29

29 forecasters

Radiant is Open

8

Will mainland China host an operational AI data center exceeding one million H100-equivalents before 2029?

50% chance

14

14 forecasters

50%chance

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

120

120 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

60

60 forecasters

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

7

45

45 forecasters

When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?

<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)

3

33

33 forecasters

<01 Jan 2030

(<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

19

113

113 forecasters

FutureEval Bot Tournament Resources Page

4

Which quantum pure-play stock will post the highest weekly gain from Aug 28 to Sep 4, 2026: IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, or Quantum Computing Inc.?

145 145 comments

145

145 forecasters

Will a draft FIPS standard incorporating the HQC post-quantum algorithm appear on NIST's publications listing as of August 20, 2026?

result: no

151

151 forecasters

ResolvedNo

As of August 20, 2026, will the IBM Quantum blog's most recent post be dated on or after August 14, 2026?

result: yes

150

150 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

65

65 forecasters

Will the majority of global computing power be based on non-silicon hardware before the end of the 21st century?

65% chance

1

10

10 forecasters

65%chance

Will a fault-tolerant quantum computer be available to commercial users before January 1, 2030?

40% chance

12

12 forecasters

40%chance

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: October 2026 Updates

1

Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.

3

Sums and Products

11