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When will a quantum-computing system with 1000 highly accurate logical qubits be demonstrated?

Jul 2033 (11 Sep 2029 - Nov 2051)

4

4 forecasters

Jul 2033

(11 Sep 2029 - Nov 2051)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

57

57 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

57

57 forecasters

Build Your Own Forecasting Bot in 30 Minutes With Our Tutorial Video

8

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

96% chance

256

189 189 comments

3k

3k forecasters

96%chance

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

7

44

44 forecasters

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

7

53

53 forecasters

Which country will be first to factor the 2048-bit RSA challenge number?

4

4 forecasters

Conditional on a Room-Temperature Superconductor Being Discovered Before 2100, Will Quantum Computing Be a Major Enabling Factor?

40% chance

3

3 forecasters

40%chance

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

How many months will pass between the factoring of the 1024-bit and 2048-bit RSA challenge numbers?

12.4 Months (5.41 - 27.2)

2

2 forecasters

12.4 Months

(5.41 - 27.2)

When will a logical-level CNOT be demonstrated with error < 10⁻⁶ per gate?

Jul 2032 (22 Aug 2029 - Sep 2036)

2

2 forecasters

Jul 2032

(22 Aug 2029 - Sep 2036)

When will a logical qubit with per–QEC‑cycle error rate < 10⁻⁶ be demonstrated?

13 Jul 2030 (23 Mar 2028 - Dec 2033)

2

2 forecasters

13 Jul 2030

(23 Mar 2028 - Dec 2033)

Which quantum hardware substrate will first factor a 2048-bit RSA modulus?

2

2 forecasters

Which organization will first factor a 2048-bit RSA modulus?

1

5

5 forecasters

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

3

Five years after AGI, will quantum gravity be solved?

12% chance

7

51

51 forecasters

12%chance

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

19

110

110 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

25% chance

37

468

468 forecasters

25%chance

When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?

<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - Jan 2034)

3

25

25 forecasters

<01 Jan 2030

(<01 Jan 2030 - Jan 2034)

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

7

25

25 forecasters

Will any of these AI companies be nationalized before Jan 1st 2030?

3

3 forecasters