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Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud12%

Amazon Web Services11%

2 comments

40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Amazon Web Services5%

Microsoft Azure5%

2 comments

36 forecasters

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%

Nvidia5%

Google5%

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

Nata30%

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0 comments

4 comments

7 forecasters

What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?

Single-qubit relaxation time (T1) (μs)375M

Coherence time (T2) (seconds)442

2-qubit gate infidelity1.66×10⁻⁴

25 comments

129 forecasters

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Current estimate

May 2034

Key Factors

10 comments

38 forecasters

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%

≤3 nm91%

≤2 nm50%

12 comments

130 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%chance

5 comments

19 forecasters

When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?

Current estimate

Sep 2035