25 comments
129 forecasters
When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?
Current estimate
Oct 2033
5 comments
19 forecasters
When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?
Current estimate
Sep 2035
0 comments
29 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH16%
Microsoft Azure14%
Google Cloud12%
2 comments
38 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH27%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
2 comments
35 forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
AMD5%
Nvidia5%
Google5%
169 comments
243 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama30%
AI-Dystopia23.7%
Singularia18.9%