Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?622 comments5353 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5656 forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?722 comments5151 forecasters
How many problems solved by AI will the official FrontierMath Open Problems index show on May 1, 2026?119119 comments118118 forecasters
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?322 comments2222 forecasters
When will the first company with a market cap above the given figures be openly run by an AI CEO?433 comments2525 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4141 forecasters
Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?result: no422 comments6262 forecastersResolvedNo
When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?30 Apr 2030 (04 Jan 2028 - Jun 2035)113838 comments112112 forecasters30 Apr 2030 (04 Jan 2028 - Jun 2035)
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?8% chance64242 comments7979 forecasters8%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?27% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters27%chance
When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?132020 comments3838 forecasters
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?result: no477 comments1616 forecastersResolvedNo
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?182424 comments9898 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4141 forecasters