Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.322 comments
Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?11111 comments115115 forecasters
Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?96% chance396464 comments254254 forecasters96%chance
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?71% chance644 comments7575 forecasters71%chance
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?24 Oct 2027 (04 Aug 2026 - 16 Jul 2030)967979 comments646646 forecasters24 Oct 2027 (04 Aug 2026 - 16 Jul 2030)
When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)32727 comments3232 forecasters<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?40% chance64242 comments8484 forecasters40%chance
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?result: yes251515 comments145145 forecastersResolvedYes
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?322 comments2222 forecasters
When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?142121 comments3838 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?622 comments6262 forecasters
Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?88% chance122 comments134134 forecasters88%chance
If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?25% chance262626 comments341341 forecasters25%chance
Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?80% chance22 comments1717 forecasters80%chance
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?722 comments5353 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5858 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?98% chance333 comments66 forecastersAnnulled
When will an AI model capable of autonomously generating accurate and complete book summaries be commonly available?17 Jun 2027 (07 Aug 2026 - 29 Apr 2028)101414 comments2626 forecasters17 Jun 2027 (07 Aug 2026 - 29 Apr 2028)