Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?93% chance566 comments4949 forecasters93%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?622 comments5858 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?99% chance241414 comments145145 forecasters99%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments331331 forecasters30%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5858 forecasters
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?322 comments2222 forecasters
Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?98% chance331717 comments177177 forecasters98%chance
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?98% chance333 comments66 forecastersAnnulled
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?722 comments5353 forecasters
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?34.7 months (9.34 - 151)415151 comments348348 forecasters34.7 months (9.34 - 151)
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4444 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?30% chance374545 comments470470 forecasters30%chance
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4242 forecasters
Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?98% chance241111 comments140140 forecasters98%chance
Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?49% chance374949 comments236236 forecasters49%chance
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?71% chance644 comments7272 forecasters71%chance
Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?result: no422 comments6262 forecastersResolvedNo
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments4444 forecasters
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?result: no477 comments1616 forecastersResolvedNo
How many of the 10 most important advancements in machine learning or artificial intelligence of 2025-2030 will have been discovered by an AI system?3.84 (1.35 - 7.74)166 comments1919 forecasters3.84 (1.35 - 7.74)