14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
0 comments
29 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH16%
Microsoft Azure14%
Google Cloud12%
12 comments
31 forecasters
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?
Vietnam85%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan70%
2 comments
38 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH27%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
26 comments
43 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
9% this week
2 comments
35 forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
AMD5%
Nvidia5%
Google5%
2 comments
22 forecasters
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?
Inflectionresult: No
Metaresult: No
OpenAIresult: No