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0 comments
32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%
Google Cloud20%
Microsoft Azure14%
2 comments
40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
8 comments
35 forecasters

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

7 comments
34 forecasters

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

0 or 142.6%
2 or 341.8%
4 or 510.6%

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
0 comments
AI Progress Essay Contest
2 comments
36 forecasters

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%
Nvidia5%
Google5%
36 comments
65 forecasters

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, β€œGo make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%chance

Key Factors

πŸ€– The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments
4 comments
18 forecasters

Will David Chalmers believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

57%chance
44 comments
434 forecasters

RagnarΓΆk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance