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US Democracy Index

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Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud12%

Amazon Web Services11%

3 comments

41 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate

61.4%

Key Factors

8 comments

44 forecasters

Will Australia enter a recession before 2026?

10%chance

10% this week

Key Factors

10 comments

18 forecasters

Will a developed country experience >20% yearly GDP growth before 2031?

2%chance

3 comments

33 forecasters

What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?

Latest estimate

47.1

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

Nata30%

1 comment

23 forecasters

What percentage of new passenger car sales will be all-electric in Australia in 2030?

Current estimate

51.8%

3 comments

33 forecasters

Five years after AGI, what will be the world’s real average annual GDP growth?

Current estimate

6.46%

23 comments

29 forecasters

What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023?

UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%result: Yes

UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%result: No

UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%result: No

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

0 comments

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