Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud20%

Microsoft Azure14%

3 comments

41 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate

61.3%

Key Factors

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

1 1 comment

AI Progress Essay Contest

6 comments

13 forecasters

What will be China's share of rare earth production in 2030?

Current estimate

51.5%

3 comments

33 forecasters

What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?

Latest estimate

47.1

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

AMEC30%

8 comments

44 forecasters

Will Australia enter a recession before 2026?

20%chance

6% this week

Key Factors

2 comments

32 forecasters

What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?

community

3.29

result

3.13

0 comments

45 forecasters

What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?

Latest estimate

5.52%

This question is closed for forecasting.

10 comments

39 forecasters

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%

≤3 nm91%

≤2 nm50%