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US Democracy Index

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What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate

62.7%

0 comments

31 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud14.2%

Microsoft Azure14%

6 comments

13 forecasters

What will be China's share of rare earth production in 2030?

Current estimate

51.5%

10 comments

38 forecasters

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%

≤3 nm90%

≤2 nm47%

19 comments

94 forecasters

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

3 comments

33 forecasters

What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?

Latest estimate

47.1

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

17 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

AMEC30%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

0 comments

Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

9 comments

41 forecasters

Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?

12%chance

3% this week

0 comments

45 forecasters

What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?

Latest estimate

5.52%

This question is closed for forecasting.