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US Democracy Index

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Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments

103 forecasters

Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?

65%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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101 forecasters

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

2%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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100 forecasters

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

20.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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100 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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100 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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100 forecasters

Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026?

9.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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95 forecasters

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

Latest estimate

40.7M birds

This question is closed for forecasting.

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81 forecasters

What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?

Latest estimate

231T digits

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106 forecasters

Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.