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US Democracy Index

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Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara65%

José Antonio Kast27.5%

Evelyn Matthei2.5%

70 comments

138 forecasters

Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?

Together for the Republic67%

No Prime Minister13.6%

Other6.9%

Key Factors

8 comments

13 forecasters

Will a referendum on adopting the euro be officially announced in the Czech Republic before 2030?

25%chance

Key Factors

9 comments

28 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023?

NSCresult: No

VVDresult: No

PvdA-GLresult: No

13 comments

11 forecasters

How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election?

ANO 2011result: 80 seats

Civic Democratic Party (ODS)result: 27 seats

Mayors and Independents (STAN)result: 22 seats

52 comments

93 forecasters

Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?

Montenegro96%

North Macedonia87.5%

Albania85%

2 comments

34 forecasters

Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?

EPPresult: Yes

S&Dresult: No

IDresult: No

7 comments

63 forecasters

Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

7%chance

2 comments

38 forecasters

Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?

resultYes

5 comments

47 forecasters

Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

51%chance