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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

12
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0 comments
6 forecasters

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of foreign interference?

0 comments
3 forecasters

Will a U.S. state legislative or congressional map be used for the following general elections with a total population deviation between districts of ≥12%?

2 comments
7 forecasters

Who will win the UK Labour Party's Deputy Leadership election in 2025?

Bridget PhillipsonUpcoming
Lucy PowellUpcoming
Someone elseUpcoming
2 comments
12 forecasters

Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in the following years?

0 comments
7 forecasters

Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?

0 comments
88 forecasters

Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
7 forecasters

How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years?

202551.7
202649.6
202749
2 comments
50 forecasters

Who will be elected governor of New Jersey in 2025?

The Democratic Party candidate (Mikie Sherrill)81%
The Republican Party candidate (Jack Ciattarelli)18%
Other1%
0 comments
6 forecasters

Will an active duty U.S. senior military leader join an election campaign or accept a civilian executive position in the following years?