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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
12
0
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0
comments
6
forecasters
Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of foreign interference?
0
comments
3
forecasters
Will a U.S. state legislative or congressional map be used for the following general elections with a total population deviation between districts of ≥12%?
2
comments
7
forecasters
Who will win the UK Labour Party's Deputy Leadership election in 2025?
Bridget Phillipson
Upcoming
Lucy Powell
Upcoming
Someone else
Upcoming
2
comments
12
forecasters
Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in the following years?
0
comments
7
forecasters
Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?
0
comments
88
forecasters
Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?
20%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
7
forecasters
How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years?
2025
51.7
2026
49.6
2027
49
1 other
2
comments
50
forecasters
Who will be elected governor of New Jersey in 2025?
The Democratic Party candidate (Mikie Sherrill)
81%
The Republican Party candidate (Jack Ciattarelli)
18%
Other
1%
0
comments
6
forecasters
Will an active duty U.S. senior military leader join an election campaign or accept a civilian executive position in the following years?
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