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0 comments
23 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

Current estimate
Revealed in 13 hours
6 comments
45 forecasters

What will be the lead of Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Current estimate
15 pp
0 comments
94 forecasters

Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?

Both elections60.5%
Only Virginia24.2%
Only New Jersey9.5%

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment
46 forecasters

Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara66%
José Antonio Kast36%
Evelyn Matthei7%
2 comments
48 forecasters

Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025?

75%chance
7% this week
0 comments
42 forecasters

Will the 2025 return of professional investor Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?

10%chance
6 comments
55 forecasters

Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?

resultYes
12 comments
132 forecasters

Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?

Amanda Edwards42.3%
Christian Menefee35.1%
Jolanda Jones10.3%
0 comments
88 forecasters

Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

16
66 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index