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US Democracy Index

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What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the Senate after the 2026 elections?

Current estimate

1.02 seats

0 comments

8 forecasters

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

Current estimate

-4.31 seats

2 comments

16 forecasters

What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025?

1 comment

How many UK councils will issue section 114 notices before the next General Election?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 days

1 comment

19 forecasters

Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

117 comments

258 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

62%chance

12% this week

Key Factors

0 comments

2 forecasters

Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

0 comments

106 forecasters

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?

11.4%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Contributed by the Adjacent community.

2 comments

3 forecasters

Who will Trump nominate as next Fed Chair?

Judy Shelton25.9%

Larry Kudlow25.1%

Kevin Hassett18.8%