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US Democracy Index

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Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

20.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

16 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?

78.3%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

48 forecasters

Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

1 comment

4 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days

5 comments

6 forecasters

Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened question)

99%chance

19% today

5 comments

8 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

Anish Giri99.9%

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

25%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.