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US Democracy Index

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Will Pedro Sánchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, call for general elections before 2026?

15%chance

6% this week

This question is closed for forecasting.

4 comments

3 forecasters

Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jararesult: No

José Antonio Kastresult: Yes

Evelyn Mattheiresult: No

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

12 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

Anish Giri99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

2 comments

30 forecasters

Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

Key Factors

0 comments

4 forecasters

Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states?

GeorgiaUpcoming

IowaUpcoming

MaineUpcoming

0 comments

1 forecaster

What will be Donald Trump's approval rating be on November 25, 2025?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 days

135 comments

313 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

48%chance

Key Factors

0 comments

87 forecasters

Will Mikie Sherrill be officially certified as the winner of New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial election by December 31, 2025?

97%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

13 comments

90 forecasters

Who will win the FIDE Chess World Cup 2025?

Someone else74%

Wei Yi13.8%

Arjun Erigaisi11.5%

Key Factors