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US Democracy Index

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Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments

2 forecasters

Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara24%

José Antonio Kast36%

Evelyn Matthei15%

9 comments

13 forecasters

Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara65%

José Antonio Kast20%

Evelyn Matthei3.5%

418 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Nikki Haleyresult: No

Ron DeSantisresult: No

1 comment

17 forecasters

Which party's nominee will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democratic Party54%

Republican Party45.9%

Other0.1%

82 comments

235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes

Kamala Harris (D)result: No

Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

3.9k comments

3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

0 comments

3 forecasters

What will be the Democratic candidate's Electoral College margin in the 2028 US presidential election?

Current estimate

10.5 votes

14 comments

16 forecasters

What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024?

Alaskaresult: 13.1

Iowaresult: 13.2

Ohioresult: 11.1

584 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Kamala Harrisresult: Yes

Joe Bidenresult: No

Gavin Newsomresult: No