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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

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U.S. Democracy Threat Index

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5 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

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6 forecasters

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

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4 forecasters

Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?

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7 forecasters

Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?

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3 forecasters

Will an active duty U.S. senior military leader join an election campaign or accept a civilian executive position in the following years?

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4 forecasters

Will no debates be held between the actual or presumptive presidential nominees of the two major parties in the following US elections?

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3 forecasters

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of fraud?

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2 forecasters

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of foreign interference?

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4 forecasters

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?

Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?

Will an active duty U.S. senior military leader join an election campaign or accept a civilian executive position in the following years?

Will no debates be held between the actual or presumptive presidential nominees of the two major parties in the following US elections?

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of fraud?

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of foreign interference?

In the following U.S. presidential elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?

Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?

Will an active duty U.S. senior military leader join an election campaign or accept a civilian executive position in the following years?

Will no debates be held between the actual or presumptive presidential nominees of the two major parties in the following US elections?

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of fraud?

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of foreign interference?

In the following U.S. presidential elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?