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US Democracy Index

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Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

30%chance

50% this week

6 comments

12 forecasters

What will be the lead of Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Current estimate

14.7 pp

35 comments

37 forecasters

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

Jack Smith (special counsel)result: No

Barack Obamaresult: No

Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)result: No

3.9k comments

3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

418 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Nikki Haleyresult: No

Ron DeSantisresult: No

75 comments

171 forecasters

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

2.5%chance

82 comments

235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes

Kamala Harris (D)result: No

Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

584 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Kamala Harrisresult: Yes

Joe Bidenresult: No

Gavin Newsomresult: No

238 comments

223 forecasters

Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day?

J.D. Vanceresult: Yes

Vivek Ramaswamyresult: No

Donald Trump Jr.result: No

65 comments

87 forecasters

Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?

Javier Mileiresult: Yes

Sergio Massaresult: No

Patricia Bullrichresult: No