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US Democracy Index

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Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments

2 forecasters

Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara24%

José Antonio Kast36%

Evelyn Matthei15%

10 comments

13 forecasters

Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara65%

José Antonio Kast27.5%

Evelyn Matthei3.5%

35 comments

37 forecasters

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

Jack Smith (special counsel)result: No

Barack Obamaresult: No

Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)result: No

44 comments

130 forecasters

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

15%chance

7% this week

Key Factors

418 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Nikki Haleyresult: No

Ron DeSantisresult: No

1 comment

17 forecasters

Which party's nominee will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democratic Party54%

Republican Party45.9%

Other0.1%

82 comments

235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes

Kamala Harris (D)result: No

Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

3.9k comments

3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

0 comments

3 forecasters

What will be the Democratic candidate's Electoral College margin in the 2028 US presidential election?

Current estimate

10.5 votes