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US Democracy Index

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Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments

15 forecasters

Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?

1 comment

11 forecasters

Which party's nominee will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Republican PartyUpcoming

Democratic PartyUpcoming

OtherUpcoming

0 comments

3 forecasters

What will be the Democratic candidate's Electoral College margin in the 2028 US presidential election?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 hours

118 comments

271 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

50%chance

15% this week

Key Factors

418 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Nikki Haleyresult: No

Ron DeSantisresult: No

3.9k comments

3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

82 comments

235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes

Kamala Harris (D)result: No

Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

35 comments

37 forecasters

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

Jack Smith (special counsel)result: No

Barack Obamaresult: No

Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)result: No

14 comments

16 forecasters

What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024?

Alaskaresult: 13.1

Iowaresult: 13.2

Ohioresult: 11.1