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US Democracy Index

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Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will Pedro Sánchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, call for general elections before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

138 comments

319 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

48%chance

Key Factors

4 comments

3 forecasters

Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jararesult: No

José Antonio Kastresult: Yes

Evelyn Mattheiresult: No

12 comments

13 forecasters

Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jararesult: Yes

José Antonio Kastresult: No

Evelyn Mattheiresult: No

35 comments

37 forecasters

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

Jack Smith (special counsel)result: No

Barack Obamaresult: No

Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)result: No

5 comments

45 forecasters

Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?

7.5%chance

50 comments

136 forecasters

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

24%chance

9% this week

Key Factors

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

14%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

418 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Nikki Haleyresult: No

Ron DeSantisresult: No