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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

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U.S. Democracy Threat Index

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7 forecasters

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of foreign interference?

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7 forecasters

Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?

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6 forecasters

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of fraud?

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9 forecasters

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

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6 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

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8 forecasters

Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?

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7 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice indict a high-profile individual from the opposing party to the U.S. president in the following years?

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7 forecasters

Will the U.S. President or another executive branch official direct federal law enforcement to not enforce a federal court order in the following years?

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6 forecasters

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of foreign interference?

Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of fraud?

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?

Will the Department of Justice indict a high-profile individual from the opposing party to the U.S. president in the following years?

Will the U.S. President or another executive branch official direct federal law enforcement to not enforce a federal court order in the following years?

Will an active duty U.S. senior military leader join an election campaign or accept a civilian executive position in the following years?

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of foreign interference?

Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of fraud?

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?

Will the Department of Justice indict a high-profile individual from the opposing party to the U.S. president in the following years?

Will the U.S. President or another executive branch official direct federal law enforcement to not enforce a federal court order in the following years?

Will an active duty U.S. senior military leader join an election campaign or accept a civilian executive position in the following years?