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1 comment
3 forecasters

Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette JaraUpcoming
José Antonio KastUpcoming
Evelyn MattheiUpcoming

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

16
44 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
38 comments
80 forecasters

Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?

203060%
204040%
205033%
0 comments
44 forecasters

In the following U.S. presidential elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?

2 comments
34 forecasters

Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?

15%chance
5% this week
82 comments
235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
418 comments
1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Nikki Haleyresult: No
Ron DeSantisresult: No
75 comments
172 forecasters

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

3%chance
3.9k comments
3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
4 comments
40 forecasters

Will the US Constitution be amended to enable a third presidential term by Nov 2028?

3%chance