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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
13
0
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0
comments
7
forecasters
Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?
0
comments
6
forecasters
Will an active duty U.S. senior military leader join an election campaign or accept a civilian executive position in the following years?
0
comments
6
forecasters
Will no debates be held between the actual or presumptive presidential nominees of the two major parties in the following US elections?
0
comments
8
forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
2
comments
50
forecasters
Who will be elected governor of New Jersey in 2025?
The Democratic Party candidate (Mikie Sherrill)
81%
The Republican Party candidate (Jack Ciattarelli)
18%
Other
1%
0
comments
5
forecasters
In the following U.S. presidential elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?
418
comments
1.2k
forecasters
Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump
result:
Yes
Nikki Haley
result:
No
Ron DeSantis
result:
No
14 others
584
comments
1.2k
forecasters
Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Kamala Harris
result:
Yes
Joe Biden
result:
No
Gavin Newsom
result:
No
13 others
82
comments
235
forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)
result:
Yes
Kamala Harris (D)
result:
No
Gavin Newsom (D)
Annulled
17 others
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