Will August 2026 be the warmest August on record, according to Copernicus?0 comments88 forecasters%chance
Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA?134848 comments106106 forecasters
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?20% chance41313 comments4545 forecasters20%chance
Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?40% chance1166 comments5454 forecasters40%chance
Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?30% chance433 comments1818 forecasters30%chance
How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?1.29 (0.996 - 1.64)41313 comments3434 forecastersResolved1.381
What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?0.931 °C (0.898 - 0.98)12929 comments8484 forecastersResolved0.91 °C
Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?344 comments11 forecaster
EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?211 comment44 forecasters
Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?211 comment55 forecasters
Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?13% chance422 comments1616 forecasters13%chance
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?0.1% chance22 comments6666 forecasters0.1%chance
Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?25% chance877 comments2727 forecasters25%chance
EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets? → Global Warming in 2100 over 1880 Baseline90 comments1414 forecasters
Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?96% chance311 comment3939 forecasters96%chance
What will be Germany's per-capita CO2 emissions in 2030, in tonnes?7.21 t (6.03 - 8.44)788 comments3434 forecasters7.21 t (6.03 - 8.44)
Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?50% chance141010 comments104104 forecasters50%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?1% chance777 comments197197 forecasters1%chance
Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?20% chance2088 comments146146 forecasters20%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance355252 comments294294 forecasters10%chance