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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Will Copernicus (C3S) report that March 2026 was the warmest March on record globally?

result: no

120120 comments
120
120 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA?

13
4646 comments
105
105 forecasters

Will Copernicus report that Europe was warmer than the 1991–2020 average in March 2026 before April 30, 2026?

result: yes

130130 comments
127
127 forecasters
ResolvedYes

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

0.931 °C (0.898 - 0.98)

1
2929 comments
84
84 forecasters
0.931 °C
(0.898 - 0.98)

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

0.87 °C (0.64 - 1.09)

100100 comments
101
101 forecasters
0.87 °C
(0.64 - 1.09)

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

22% chance

20
88 comments
148
148 forecasters
22%chance

How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?

1.29 (0.996 - 1.64)

4
1313 comments
34
34 forecasters
1.29
(0.996 - 1.64)

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

14% chance

4
22 comments
17
17 forecasters
14%chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

0.1% chance

22 comments
68
68 forecasters
0.1%chance

Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?

50% chance

14
1010 comments
106
106 forecasters
50%chance

What will be Germany's per-capita CO2 emissions in 2030, in tonnes?

7.21 t (6.03 - 8.44)

7
88 comments
34
34 forecasters
7.21 t
(6.03 - 8.44)

Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

31% chance

4
33 comments
19
19 forecasters
31%chance

Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?

96% chance

3
11 comment
39
39 forecasters
96%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

1% chance

7
77 comments
199
199 forecasters
1%chance

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

3
44 comments
1
1 forecaster

EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

2
11 comment
4
4 forecasters

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

2
11 comment
5
5 forecasters

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

27.9% chance

8
77 comments
29
29 forecasters
27.9%chance

EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets? → Global Warming in 2100 over 1880 Baseline

9
0 comments
14
14 forecasters

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

31% chance

10
66 comments
54
54 forecasters
31%chance

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25% chance

4
1313 comments
47
47 forecasters
25%chance

Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?

50% chance

3
66 comments
38
38 forecasters
50%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10% chance

35
5252 comments
296
296 forecasters
10%chance

Ragnarök Series—results so far

31
3434 comments