Will Copernicus (C3S) report that March 2026 was the warmest March on record globally?result: no120120 comments120120 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA?134646 comments105105 forecasters
Will Copernicus report that Europe was warmer than the 1991–2020 average in March 2026 before April 30, 2026?result: yes130130 comments127127 forecastersResolvedYes
What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?0.931 °C (0.898 - 0.98)12929 comments8484 forecasters0.931 °C (0.898 - 0.98)
What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?0.87 °C (0.64 - 1.09)100100 comments101101 forecasters0.87 °C (0.64 - 1.09)
Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?22% chance2088 comments148148 forecasters22%chance
How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?1.29 (0.996 - 1.64)41313 comments3434 forecasters1.29 (0.996 - 1.64)
Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?14% chance422 comments1717 forecasters14%chance
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?0.1% chance22 comments6868 forecasters0.1%chance
Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?50% chance141010 comments106106 forecasters50%chance
What will be Germany's per-capita CO2 emissions in 2030, in tonnes?7.21 t (6.03 - 8.44)788 comments3434 forecasters7.21 t (6.03 - 8.44)
Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?31% chance433 comments1919 forecasters31%chance
Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?96% chance311 comment3939 forecasters96%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?1% chance777 comments199199 forecasters1%chance
Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?344 comments11 forecaster
EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?211 comment44 forecasters
Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?211 comment55 forecasters
Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?27.9% chance877 comments2929 forecasters27.9%chance
EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets? → Global Warming in 2100 over 1880 Baseline90 comments1414 forecasters
Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?31% chance1066 comments5454 forecasters31%chance
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?25% chance41313 comments4747 forecasters25%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance355252 comments296296 forecasters10%chance