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US Democracy Index

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Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

86 forecasters

Will NATO’s North Atlantic Council publish an official statement between 15 Oct and 31 Dec 2025 explicitly citing a Russian violation of Allied airspace?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

20 comments

48 forecasters

Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

10%chance

Key Factors

0 comments

3 forecasters

By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?

99.9%chance

20% this week

0 comments

95 forecasters

Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

140 comments

324 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

49%chance

Key Factors

0 comments

88 forecasters

Between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Russia or Belarus officially announce that the “Oreshnik” missile system is deployed on Belarusian territory?

64%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

34 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH30%

Google Cloud16%

Amazon Web Services15%