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US Democracy Index

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Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

15%chance

5% today

Key Factors

0 comments

95 forecasters

Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

86 forecasters

Will NATO’s North Atlantic Council publish an official statement between 15 Oct and 31 Dec 2025 explicitly citing a Russian violation of Allied airspace?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

137 comments

317 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

40%chance

Key Factors

0 comments

3 forecasters

By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?

99.9%chance

20% this week

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

21 forecasters

Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?

4.8%chance

0 comments

106 forecasters

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.