0 comments
82 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-09-26 for the Metaculus question "Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?"?
43.1%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 9.10% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?"?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
88 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?"?
resultNo
85 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 52.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question "Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?"?
resultNo
75 comments
74 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question "Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?"?
resultNo