88 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?"?
resultNo
84 comments
81 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question "Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?"?
resultYes
0 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 9.10% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?"?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
85 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 52.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question "Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?"?
resultNo
75 comments
74 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question "Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?"?
resultNo
75 comments
74 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 12.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question "Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?"?
resultYes
0 comments
3 forecasters