Will the United States resume its air campaign against Iran before December 1, 2026?99.9% chance11 comment55 forecasters99.9%chance
Will Ukraine strike a Russian oil refinery between October 29 and October 31, 2026?result: yes338338 comments340340 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the United States authorize the transfer of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by October 30, 2026?result: no320320 comments320320 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a US halt of Ukraine arms deliveries under NATO's PURL mechanism be confirmed before November 1, 2026?result: no318318 comments316316 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Israel or the United States conduct a military strike on Iranian territory between October 29 and October 30, 2026?result: no308308 comments307307 forecastersResolvedNo
How many attack drones will Russia launch at Ukraine on the night of October 29–30, 2026?180 drones (128 - 304)303303 comments302302 forecastersResolved113 drones
Will another merchant vessel be attacked in the Black Sea off Bulgaria or Romania on October 29, 2026?result: no303303 comments301301 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Russia and Ukraine have a Black Sea maritime ceasefire or safe-passage agreement in effect as of October 30, 2026?result: no302302 comments301301 forecastersResolvedNo
How many drones will Ukraine's Air Force report Russia launched at Ukraine on the night of 12–13 November 2026?159 drones (109 - 274)0 comments350350 forecasters159 drones (109 - 274)
Will the United States detonate a nuclear weapon in Iran before December 1, 2026?10% chance11 comment55 forecasters10%chance
What will be the highest score achieved by any model on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on December 31, 2026?11 comment3737 forecasters
How many cultural sites in Ukraine will be damaged as of December 31, 2026, according to UNESCO?580 Cultural Sites (574 - 592)21212 comments9999 forecasters580 Cultural Sites (574 - 592)
Will Russian and Ukrainian officials hold a round of negotiations on an energy-infrastructure ceasefire between October 15 and October 17, 2026?result: no259259 comments255255 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Russian, Ukrainian, and US officials hold a trilateral negotiation meeting between October 15 and 17, 2026?result: no262262 comments259259 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the US conduct a new military strike inside Iranian territory between October 15 and October 16, 2026?result: no236236 comments234234 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before December 2026?2% chance22 comments66 forecasters2%chance
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?97% chance257198198 comments3k3k forecasters97%chance
Will a new Clay Millennium Prize be awarded entirely to individual humans before 2040?15% chance144 comments1111 forecasters15%chance
Will the Trump administration or a GOP state governor deploy armed officers or troops to a polling or early voting site in 2026?10% chance477 comments114114 forecasters10%chance
What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on the eve of Election Day 2026?56.9% (55.9 - 58.3)11 comment1818 forecasters56.9% (55.9 - 58.3)