Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection at any of Iran's Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan nuclear sites before September 1, 2026?15% chance0 comments145145 forecasters15%chance
How many papers submitted to arXiv in July and August 2026 will mention agentic reinforcement learning in their abstracts?215 papers (126 - 315)0 comments136136 forecasters215 papers (126 - 315)
Will any of these U.S. government officials visit Cuba before September 1, 2026?21.5% chance0 comments136136 forecasters21.5%chance
Which lab will have the highest score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on August 31, 2026?0 comments129129 forecasters
What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?22626 comments101101 forecasters
How many known vulnerabilities will the U.S. Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency add to its catalog in July 2026?0 comments131131 forecasters
How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for June 2026?11.4k encounters (9204 - 14k)0 comments117117 forecasters11.4k encounters (9204 - 14k)
Will a newly constructed oil or natural gas pipeline intended to bypass the Strait of Hormuz become fully operational before January 1, 2031?53% chance33 comments88 forecasters53%chance
How many clinicaltrials.gov studies with an LLM-based Chatbot as the intervention/treatment will be recruiting on August 1, 2026 ?0 comments134134 forecasters
Will a Ukranian attack cause a 30-day shutdown of a Russian oil refinery before 2027?49% chance1010 comments88 forecasters49%chance
What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?0 comments125125 forecasters
Will the Moscow Oil Refinery (Kapotnya) be struck or targeted by a drone attack between July 9 and July 12, 2026?19.5% chance0 comments117117 forecasters19.5%chance
Will Russia launch a single overnight aerial attack on Ukraine using more than 600 drones between July 9 and July 12, 2026?15% chance0 comments116116 forecasters15%chance
Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection at any of Iran's Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan nuclear sites before September 1, 2026?25% chance10 comments77 forecasters25%chance
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before September 1, 2026?5% chance10 comments1111 forecasters5%chance
What will be the highest daily number of PLA aircraft tracked by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense in Taiwan's air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) in July-August 2026?36 aircraft (29 - 43)-10 comments22 forecasters36 aircraft (29 - 43)
Will Ukraine's government debt be at least 2.10 trillion UAH in June 2026?93.7% chance0 comments117117 forecasters93.7%chance
Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to a US–Iran ceasefire or peace deal between June 13 and June 28, 2026?result: no11 comment101101 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the US conduct a military strike inside Iranian territory between June 25 and June 28, 2026?result: yes11 comment9191 forecastersResolvedYes
Will a commercial vessel be sunk or suffer a fatal attack in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman between June 14 and June 28, 2026?result: no11 comment9999 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the US and Iran formally sign a memorandum of understanding (ceasefire deal) before June 28, 2026?result: yes11 comment8888 forecastersResolvedYes
Will an Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire enter into effect before September 1, 2026?result: yes113113 comments118118 forecastersResolvedYes