Will ISW assess that Russian forces have captured the city of Kostyantynivka by its September 3, 2026 assessment?15% chance0 comments148148 forecasters15%chance
Will Finland officially confirm the 20 August 2026 Gulf of Finland incident as a Russian airspace violation by 3 September 2026?62% chance0 comments157157 forecasters62%chance
What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?53636 comments133133 forecasters
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before September 1, 2026?result: no344 comments5555 forecastersResolvedNo
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?result: yes251515 comments145145 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the United States launch an attack against JNIM in Mali during August 2026?result: no377 comments8787 forecastersResolvedNo
How many deaths from Operation Epic Fury will the U.S. government officially report on August 31, 2026?19 total deaths (14 - 57)133 comments1111 forecastersResolved14 total deaths
What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?42727 comments129129 forecasters
Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026?result: no22 comments4848 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Vladimir Putin visit Iran before September 1, 2026?result: no-133 comments3737 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the following entities enact a liability law before October 1, 2027 for developers of AI systems that hack other systems?44 comments22 forecasters
Will another incident of an AI system independently gaining unauthorized access to a computer system be reported to have occurred before January 1, 2027?15% chance44 comments11 forecasterAnnulled
Will another incident of an AI system independently gaining unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels be reported before January 1, 2027?33 comments22 forecasters
Will any US federal or state government entity file or join a lawsuit against OpenAI arising from the July 2026 Hugging Face incident before July 1, 2027?11 comment33 forecasters%chance
Will a misaligned AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?0 comments%chance
Will any personnel of the International Stabilization Force be deployed into Gaza before August 25, 2026?result: no122 comments1717 forecastersResolvedNo
What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on September 8, 2026?56.3% (55.2 - 57.8)0 comments1818 forecasters56.3% (55.2 - 57.8)
What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?96 (93.3 - 98.1)53434 comments746746 forecasters96 (93.3 - 98.1)
Will the United States support Argentine claims of sovereignty over the Malvinas/Falkland Islands before 2030?25% chance144 comments1111 forecasters25%chance
Will the U.S. Congress limit presidential war powers before January 3, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?33 comments5959 forecasters
Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state before 2031?15% chance21111 comments2727 forecasters15%chance