Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?97% chance0 comments1515 forecasters97%chance
Will the United States' share of major arms exports decrease by more than 15% between 2024 and 2030?40% chance66 comments44 forecasters40%chance
Will a bot beat all humans in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?47% chance22020 comments121121 forecasters47%chance
How many deaths from Operation Epic Fury will the U.S. government officially report on August 31, 2026?24 total deaths (17 - 34)0 comments44 forecasters24 total deaths (17 - 34)
Will the U.S. Senate pass an Iran war powers resolution before August 1, 2026?result: yes22 comments2323 forecastersResolvedYes
Will transit calls in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be cut by half or more on August 31, 2026 compared to July 2026?50% chance0 comments22 forecasters50%chance
Will the United States launch an attack against JNIM in Mali during August 2026?22 comments4141 forecasters%chance
Will a new round of direct in-person Ukraine-Russia peace talks take place between July 11 and July 24, 2026?result: no135135 comments133133 forecastersResolvedNo
How many total complete losses of off-site power will the IAEA have reported at the Zaporizhzhia NPP since the start of the war, as of July 25, 2026?22 losses (22 - 23)128128 comments126126 forecastersResolved22 losses
Will Ukraine and Russia conduct at least one prisoner-of-war exchange between July 12 and July 24, 2026?result: no130130 comments130130 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the Lebanese Armed Forces deploy to the initial two pilot zones in southern Lebanon before September 2026?result: yes52222 comments101101 forecastersResolvedYes
Will Iran allow IAEA inspectors on-site access to any of its uranium enrichment facilities on or before July 24, 2026?result: no128128 comments128128 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a US–Iran ceasefire be in effect on July 23, 2026?result: no118118 comments120120 forecastersResolvedNo
How many UKMTO-classified "Attack" incidents will occur in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf between July 11 and July 24, 2026?4 attacks (2 - 7)123123 comments121121 forecastersResolved8 attacks
How many ship transit calls will IMF PortWatch record at the Strait of Hormuz on July 19, 2026?8 transit calls (3 - 20)122122 comments121121 forecastersResolved15 transit calls
What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?42222 comments185185 forecasters
Will any U.S. state or EU member state restrict large-scale data center grid connections before September 2026?72% chance16767 comments154154 forecasters72%chance
When will an autonomous machine orchestrator for Command and control be fielded by a G-20 state?>Jan 2050 (>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)1313 comments1010 forecasters>Jan 2050 (>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)
How many of the following countries will enact a comprehensive national-level AI law before 2030?5 countries (3 - 8)0 comments44 forecasters5 countries (3 - 8)
When will an autonomous machine governor for Force generation be fielded by a G-20 state?>Jan 2050 (>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)1414 comments1010 forecasters>Jan 2050 (>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)
When will an autonomous machine governor for Strategic signalling be fielded by a G-20 state?>Jan 2050 (>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)1818 comments1010 forecasters>Jan 2050 (>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)