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US Democracy Index

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Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

6 forecasters

Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

86 forecasters

Will any major Danish civilian airport report a drone-related operational disruption between October 15 and December 31, 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

95 forecasters

Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

88 forecasters

Between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Russia or Belarus officially announce that the “Oreshnik” missile system is deployed on Belarusian territory?

64%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

57 forecasters

Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

10%chance

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.