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Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 Winners!

5

Will the U.S. Congress limit presidential war powers before January 3, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?

27

27 forecasters

Will the United States and Iran sign a formal agreement to end hostilities by May 31, 2026?

result: no

73

73 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?

50% chance

1

1 forecaster

50%chance

Will a comprehensive Russia–Ukraine ceasefire be officially in effect on June 14, 2026?

5.5% chance

93

93 forecasters

5.5%chance

Will the IAEA report that the Zaporizhzhya NPP has regained a second operational off-site power line before June 14, 2026?

12% chance

95

95 forecasters

12%chance

Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026?

8% chance

115

115 forecasters

8%chance

Will the German Bundeswehr or Federal Ministry of Defence publicly confirm specific dates for Germany's first participation in a French "Poker" nuclear strike exercise before June 14, 2026?

7% chance

36

36 forecasters

7%chance

Will there be a documented case of civil unrest (e.g., a strike or protest) with over 1,000,000 participants globally, citing AI impacts (e.g., labor displacement) as a primary grievance by 2030?

50% chance

1

1 forecaster

50%chance

Will the U.S. government formally notify Congress of a new arms sale to Taiwan between May 17 and May 31, 2026?

result: no

89

89 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will US federal agencies cease international arrival processing at any of the following airports for 3 or more consecutive days before 2027?

20% chance

6

6 forecasters

20%chance

Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026?

25% chance

99

99 forecasters

25%chance

Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026?

80% chance

2

123

123 forecasters

80%chance

How will the countries that participated in the 2025 International Mathematical Olympiad rank in the 2026 IMO?

1

7

7 forecasters

Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026?

10% chance

8

8 forecasters

10%chance

Will any U.S. state or EU member state restrict large-scale data center grid connections before September 2026?

35% chance

1

145

145 forecasters

35%chance

Will Saudi Arabia conduct a direct military strike against Iran before June 1, 2026?

result: yes

3

83

83 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will the Israel–Lebanon "security track" military-delegation meeting take place at the Pentagon before May 31, 2026?

result: yes

94

94 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Announcing the US Midterms 2026 Tournament - $10,000 Prize Pool

9

How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the US-Israel-Iran war over the course of 2026?

2

2 forecasters

Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

23% chance

1

814

814 forecasters

23%chance

When will Google first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN uplift level 1?

05 Oct 2030 (02 Feb 2029 - Mar 2032)

9

9 forecasters

05 Oct 2030

(02 Feb 2029 - Mar 2032)

Will the U.S. Senate pass an Iran war powers resolution before August 1, 2026?

2

2 forecasters

%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

53

53 forecasters