Will NATO forces shoot down or destroy a Russian drone or aircraft over NATO territory between October 1 and October 2, 2026?result: no177177 comments182182 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the US conduct a military strike inside Iranian territory on October 1 or October 2, 2026?result: no168168 comments174174 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a Cognitive-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance99 comments33 forecasters25%chance
Which AI lab's model will rank #1 on the LMArena Text Arena overall leaderboard on October 1, 2026?174174 comments180180 forecasters
Will a Space-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?23% chance1313 comments44 forecasters23%chance
Will Russia and Ukraine both publicly confirm a mutual energy-infrastructure ceasefire agreement by October 3, 2026?12% chance0 comments182182 forecasters12%chance
Will a Cyber-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?70% chance55 comments33 forecasters70%chance
How many drones will Russia launch at Ukraine during September 2026, according to Ukrainian Air Force daily reports?5711 drones (4993 - 6562)0 comments171171 forecasters5711 drones (4993 - 6562)
How many months behind the frontier will the best Chinese open-weights AI model be at the end of 2028?0 comments
Will the US Department of Defense award a contract worth more than $250 million for autonomous or uncrewed ground robots before 2029?0 comments%chance
Will a Space-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?15% chance77 comments33 forecasters15%chance
Will an Electromagnetic spectrum-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance33 comments33 forecasters20%chance
Will a Land-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?22.5% chance33 comments22 forecasters22.5%chance
Will an Air-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?50% chance33 comments22 forecasters50%chance
Will a Maritime-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?26% chance22 comments22 forecasters26%chance
Will a Land-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?30% chance11 comment11 forecaster30%chance
Will a Maritime-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?10% chance11 comment11 forecaster10%chance
Will an Electromagnetic spectrum-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance11 comment11 forecaster20%chance
Will a Cognitive-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?50% chance11 comment11 forecaster50%chance
Will an Intelligence-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance11 comment11 forecaster20%chance
Will a Manoeuvre, fire, and effects-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?10% chance11 comment11 forecaster10%chance
Will an Information effects-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?30% chance11 comment11 forecaster30%chance