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Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

16 comments

42 forecasters

Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

14%chance

Key Factors

1 comment

1 forecaster

Will the following countries enact mandatory military service before 2040?

AustraliaUpcoming

BelgiumUpcoming

CanadaUpcoming

0 comments

95 forecasters

Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

97 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?

Annulled

0 comments

86 forecasters

Will an official international supervisory board explicitly tasked with overseeing transitional governance of the Gaza Strip be constituted, with at least two publicly named individual members, between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?

30%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai)

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

86 forecasters

Will NATO’s North Atlantic Council publish an official statement between 15 Oct and 31 Dec 2025 explicitly citing a Russian violation of Allied airspace?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.