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US Democracy Index

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1 1 comment

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100 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?

78.3%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

34 forecasters

Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?

99.9%chance

35.9% this week

0 comments

81 forecasters

What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?

Latest estimate

231T digits

This question is closed for forecasting.

15 comments

29 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

0 comments

101 forecasters

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

2%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

103 forecasters

Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?

65%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

34 forecasters

When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

Current estimate

14 Nov 2025 00:27