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US Democracy Index

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1 1 comment

5 comments

13 forecasters

If Viktor Orbán leads a party in the 2026 Hungarian Election, will he become Prime Minister?

50%chance

47% this week

12 comments

82 forecasters

Who will win the FIDE Chess World Cup 2025?

Someone else73.8%

Arjun Erigaisi20.1%

Wei Yi5.4%

6 comments

34 forecasters

When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

community

14 Nov 2025 00:27

result

13 Nov 2025 03:15 UTC

4 comments

1 forecaster

How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

1 comment

9 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

30%chance

18% today

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

8 forecasters

Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?

78.3%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.