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US Democracy Index

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Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Capped credits)

15%chance

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102 forecasters

Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?

35%chance

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101 forecasters

Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?

17.2%chance

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100 forecasters

Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?

15%chance

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100 forecasters

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?

14%chance

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88 forecasters

By December 31, 2025 (23:59:59 UTC), will Ariane 6 have conducted at least four launches with liftoff timestamps in calendar year 2025?

75%chance

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88 forecasters

Will the EIA-reported U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline be below $3.10/gal in the last weekly reading with a Monday date in December 2025?

70%chance

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87 forecasters

Will any North Atlantic hurricane reach Category 4 or 5 intensity between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?

97%chance

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85 forecasters

Will Cuba experience at least one nationwide electricity blackout (total disconnection of the national grid) between October 15, 2025 and December 31, 2025 (UTC)?

52%chance

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88 forecasters

Between 00:00 UTC Oct 15 and 23:59 UTC Dec 31, 2025, will at least three additional UN member states formally recognize the State of Palestine?

25%chance

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