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When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Prizes inside)

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04 Nov 2025 23:08

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04 Nov 2025 16:45

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106 forecasters

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

10%chance

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106 forecasters

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

20%chance

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106 forecasters

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

15%chance

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106 forecasters

Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?

15%chance

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106 forecasters

Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?

12%chance

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103 forecasters

Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?

65%chance

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101 forecasters

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Less than 30 days36.3%

30 days24.9%

31-60 days18.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.

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97 forecasters

When will the Myanmar military junta collapse?

After 202583.6%

Sep to Dec 202514.4%

Jun to Aug 20251%

This question is closed for forecasting.