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US Democracy Index

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100 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

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100 forecasters

Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?

78.3%chance

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99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

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0 comments

81 forecasters

What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?

Latest estimate

231T digits

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0 comments

101 forecasters

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

2%chance

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103 forecasters

Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?

65%chance

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0 comments

100 forecasters

Will Ukraine reduce the minimum age for compulsory military service before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

10 comments

26 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

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99 forecasters

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.