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US Democracy Index

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Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 days

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

35 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?

resultNo

14 comments

31 forecasters

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

0 comments

2 forecasters

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

17.1%chance

17% this week

3 comments

12 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

50%chance

17% this week

Key Factors

0 comments

17 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

66.7%chance

6.7% this week

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

15 comments

195 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

1.1%chance