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US Democracy Index

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Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

4 comments

35 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?

1%chance

6% this week

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

14 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

56%chance

6% this week

0 comments

16 forecasters

Will the United States commit to providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles before December 1, 2025?

25%chance

5% this week

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

34%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

37%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

0 comments

98 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

100 forecasters

Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?

resultNo

3 comments

57 forecasters

Will South Korea sign arms export deals worth >$5bn with any country between October 1 and December 15, 2025?

18%chance

11% this week