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US Democracy Index

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Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

57 forecasters

Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

10%chance

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

35 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?

resultNo

0 comments

19 forecasters

Will the United States commit to providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles before December 1, 2025?

5%chance

10% this week

0 comments

22 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

66.7%chance

4.7% this week

12 comments

93 forecasters

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?

3%chance

Key Factors

163 comments

349 forecasters

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Current estimate

22 Mar 2027

Key Factors