44 comments
436 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
30%chance
21 comments
309 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
7 comments
16 forecasters
Will the finding in Bastian et al. (2012) that meat consumption is related to the denial of minds replicate?
Study 258.3%
Study 153%
169 comments
247 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama29.1%
AI-Dystopia25.3%
Singularia20.3%
10 comments
67 forecasters
By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?
resultNo
5 comments
48 forecasters
By December 31st, 2028, will it be considered best practice in clinical psychology to incorporate AI tools in the diagnostic process?
27%chance
16 comments
434 forecasters
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
1%chance