26 comments
43 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
9% this week
20 comments
287 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
24%chance
169 comments
243 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama30%
AI-Dystopia23.7%
Singularia18.9%
43 comments
422 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
21%chance
5 comments
48 forecasters
By December 31st, 2028, will it be considered best practice in clinical psychology to incorporate AI tools in the diagnostic process?
28%chance
0 comments
5 forecasters
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?
7 comments
68 forecasters
When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?
Current estimate
03 Jul 2026