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condition

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

4 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

90%
90%

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

5%
5%
44 comments
4
4 forecasters
254 comments
1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

25%chance

Key Factors

3 comments
5 forecasters

How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?

Engineering10k
Physics548
Microbiology and immunology543
12 comments
13 forecasters

What will the unemployment rate be in the eurozone in the following years?

condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7%
7%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
77 comments
24
24 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
8 comments
13 forecasters

How many software developers will there be in the US in the following years?

374 comments
1.7k forecasters

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

1%chance

Key Factors

44 comments
434 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance
21 comments
305 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
15 comments
17 forecasters

What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2025-26 season among the following groups in the US?

Adults 65+43.9
Adults 18+21.9
Children 6 months to 17 years12.2