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Artificial Intelligence
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condition
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
4
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
90%
90%
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
5%
5%
4
4
comments
4
4
forecasters
254
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
25%
chance
Key Factors
Alzheimer's hampers developments in radical life extension
Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.
Genetics restricts lifespan for large population subset
3
comments
5
forecasters
How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?
Engineering
10k
Physics
548
Microbiology and immunology
543
9 others
12
comments
13
forecasters
What will the unemployment rate be in the eurozone in the following years?
condition
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
24
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
7%
7%
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
0%
0%
7
7
comments
24
24
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
8
comments
13
forecasters
How many software developers will there be in the US in the following years?
374
comments
1.7k
forecasters
Will humans go extinct before 2100?
1%
chance
Key Factors
Possibility of AI smarter than humans, with goal of wiping out humans
44
comments
434
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%
chance
21
comments
305
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%
chance
15
comments
17
forecasters
What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2025-26 season among the following groups in the US?
Adults 65+
43.9
Adults 18+
21.9
Children 6 months to 17 years
12.2
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