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US Democracy Index

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What will the US population be in these years, in millions?

254 comments

1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

25%chance

Key Factors

3 comments

5 forecasters

How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?

Engineering4575

Physics548

Microbiology and immunology543

condition

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

4 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

90%

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

4 4 comments

4 forecasters

29 comments

45 forecasters

Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?

20305%

20261%

2023result: No

44 comments

436 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30%chance

21 comments

309 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance

6 comments

33 forecasters

What will be the world population in the following years?

4 comments

27 forecasters

Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?

Current estimate

41.2%

7 comments

101 forecasters

What will the US population be in these years, in millions?

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

What will be the world population in the following years?

Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?

What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years?

What will the US population be in these years, in millions?

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

What will be the world population in the following years?

Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?

What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years?