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condition

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

1 forecaster
if yes
if no

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

1
33 comments
1
1 forecaster
251 comments
1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

29%chance
4% this week
21 comments
301 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

26%chance
44 comments
433 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance
23 comments
413 forecasters

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%chance

Contributed by the Odborný Predikční Tým community.

5 comments
11 forecasters

How many suicides will children and adolescents (0-19 years) commit in 2025?

Current estimate
49.4 Sebevražd
4 comments
34 forecasters

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

80%chance
44 comments
123 forecasters

What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years?

4 comments
27 forecasters

Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?

Current estimate
41.5%
9 comments
18 forecasters

When will the first person reach 150 years of age?

Current estimate
2134