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Artificial Intelligence
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257
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
25%
chance
Key Factors
Alzheimer's hampers developments in radical life extension
Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.
Genetics restricts lifespan for large population subset
condition
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
4
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
90%
90%
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
2%
2%
4
4
comments
4
4
forecasters
21
comments
310
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%
chance
44
comments
436
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
30%
chance
4
comments
27
forecasters
Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?
Current estimate
41.2%
29
comments
45
forecasters
Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?
2030
5%
2026
1%
2024
result:
No
1 other
31
comments
118
forecasters
Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman before 2046?
1%
chance
44
comments
125
forecasters
What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years?
9
comments
74
forecasters
What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years?
3
comments
27
forecasters
What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years?
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