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257 comments
1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

25%chance

Key Factors

condition

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

4 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

90%
90%

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

2%
2%
44 comments
4
4 forecasters
21 comments
310 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
44 comments
436 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30%chance
4 comments
27 forecasters

Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?

Current estimate
41.2%
29 comments
45 forecasters

Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?

20305%
20261%
2024result: No
31 comments
118 forecasters

Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman before 2046?

1%chance
44 comments
125 forecasters

What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years?

9 comments
74 forecasters

What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years?

3 comments
27 forecasters

What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years?