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251
comments
1.5k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
28%
chance
2
comments
8
forecasters
What will the US population be in these years, in millions?
7
comments
16
forecasters
When will the first person reach 150 years of age?
Current estimate
2145
16
comments
44
forecasters
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
21%
chance
8%
this week
20
comments
287
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
24%
chance
7
comments
22
forecasters
Will any U.S. state experience a permanent population decline of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?
5%
chance
9
comments
75
forecasters
Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?
2%
chance
2%
this week
43
comments
422
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
21%
chance
9
comments
73
forecasters
What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years?
3
comments
59
forecasters
What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?
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