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Artificial Intelligence
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condition
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
1
forecaster
if yes
if no
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
1
3
3
comments
1
1
forecaster
251
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
29%
chance
4%
this week
21
comments
301
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
26%
chance
44
comments
433
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%
chance
23
comments
413
forecasters
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
35%
chance
Contributed by the
Odborný Predikční Tým
community.
5
comments
11
forecasters
How many suicides will children and adolescents (0-19 years) commit in 2025?
Current estimate
49.4 Sebevražd
4
comments
34
forecasters
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
80%
chance
44
comments
123
forecasters
What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years?
4
comments
27
forecasters
Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?
Current estimate
41.5%
9
comments
18
forecasters
When will the first person reach 150 years of age?
Current estimate
2134
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